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These shelves float on the ocean, but they\u2019re anchored to land. When they fracture and collapse, they speed up the melting of the glacier behind them.<\/p>\n
Antarctic glacier nears its breaking point<\/p>\n
Using years of NASA satellite data, the team focused on vertical fractures in the Antarctic ice sheet \u2013 the largest on the planet, even though it\u2019s losing about 136 billion tons of ice each year. <\/p>\n
Their attention was on the Thwaites Ice Shelf, a critical extension of the Thwaites<\/a> Glacier in West Antarctica.<\/p>\n Often called the \u201cDoomsday Glacier<\/a>\u201d for its potential to raise sea levels by up to 11 feet, Thwaites is especially vulnerable. The ice shelf acts like a stopper, slowing the glacier\u2019s flow into the ocean. If that shelf collapses, it could trigger a chain reaction of rapid ice loss.<\/p>\n Rethinking how fractures form<\/p>\n The new method was developed by a research team at Penn State University<\/a>. Their findings zero in on how fractures form and evolve in ice shelves \u2013 and why existing models aren\u2019t enough.<\/p>\n Shujie Wang is an assistant professor of geography, a faculty associate in the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State, and a co-author of the study.<\/p>\n \u201cWe know little about fractures, and their behavior is much more complex than conventional models suggest,\u201d she said. \u201cConventional models depend largely on simplified models and scarce, hard-to-obtain field observations.\u201d<\/p>\n The Thwaites Ice Shelf is particularly unstable. It changes quickly, its surface is heavily fractured, and the ice flows at a fast pace. <\/p>\n Researchers describe it as a final barrier that keeps the rest of the glacier from disintegrating.<\/p>\n Richard Alley, Evan Pugh University Professor of Geosciences at Penn State and co-author of the study, offered this analogy: \u201cWe\u2019ve seen ice shelves break off, but we\u2019ve never seen one grow back.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThis new research indicates we can predict better the point at which these will break off. It\u2019s helping to establish the early-warning signals.\u201d<\/p>\n High-resolution views of ice breaking<\/p>\n To capture the changes in the ice shelf\u2019s structure, the research team used data from NASA\u2019s ICESat-2 satellite. It collected measurements between 2018 and 2024.<\/p>\n This satellite tracks ice elevation, sea level<\/a>, and other Earth features with remarkable precision.<\/p>\n The team built a new two-step process to analyze the satellite data. It lets them create high-resolution elevation profiles and visual cross-sections of fractures in the ice. <\/p>\n Building on a previous algorithm Wang had designed to detect individual cracks, the new method gives researchers a better view of how different types of fractures form and evolve over time.<\/p>\n Antarctica\u2019s glacier instability feeds on itself<\/p>\n The findings showed that the eastern section of the Thwaites Ice Shelf has more aggressive fracturing, while the western side appears more stable. The cause of that difference isn\u2019t clear yet.<\/p>\n But the researchers pointed to several possible factors. These included warmer winter temperatures, less sea ice, and shifting ocean currents beneath the shelf. Further research is needed to know for sure.<\/p>\n As fractures spread, the ice flows faster. In Antarctica, that creates more cracks, which leads to more instability \u2013 a feedback loop that can push parts of the glacier past the point of no return.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe that if the Thwaites Glacier gets very unstable, it will have catastrophic consequences,\u201d Wang said. \u201cIt\u2019s an important area to be studied, to say what\u2019s going to change next.\u201d<\/p>\n Lessons from a glacier lost<\/p>\n This latest work builds on a 2023 study led by Wang that looked at the Larsen B<\/a> Ice Shelf, which collapsed in 2002. <\/p>\n That shelf, about 1,250 square miles in size, broke apart over just five weeks after years of weakening due to warmer air and ocean temperatures.<\/p>\n Back then, models didn\u2019t catch the warning signs. Now, with this new method, researchers have better tools to predict when and where these breaks might happen.<\/p>\n While older approaches relied heavily on theory, the new system offers observations and data that can feed into more accurate models. Over time, the researchers hope this will lead to stronger predictions about how Antarctic ice is changing.<\/p>\n To support ongoing and future research, Zhengrui Huang, a doctoral candidate in geography and co-author of the paper, pulled together satellite data from more than 40 Antarctic ice shelves<\/a>. <\/p>\n That dataset includes 3D information about fracture locations and depths \u2013 a potential goldmine for scientists working to understand ice dynamics.<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect this will be a key observational dataset of fractures for researchers who study and model Antarctic ice-shelf dynamics,\u201d Huang said.<\/p>\n By sharing this data as an open resource, the team hopes to accelerate discoveries and sharpen predictions. The researchers also aim to help the world better understand what\u2019s at stake if massive glaciers like Thwaites keep crumbling.<\/p>\n The full study was published in the journal Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u2014\u2013<\/p>\n Like what you read? Subscribe to our newsletter<\/a> for engaging articles, exclusive content, and the latest updates.\u00a0<\/p>\n Check us out on EarthSnap<\/a>, a free app brought to you by Eric Ralls<\/a> and Earth.com.<\/p>\n \u2014\u2013<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is nearly 80 miles wide, making it the largest glacier in the…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":96158,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[746,159,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-96157","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-environment","9":"tag-science","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114924029665213780","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96157\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}