He added that neither side was satisfied with the current situation, but neither was in a hurry to change it.<\/p>\n
\u201cSince the end of Operation Roaring Lion, the situation has been neither here nor there, a kind of status quo involving a new balance of neither peace nor war. It may be a better situation for all the players than the alternatives. We have essentially been in the same situation since the end of March,\u201d Vilan said.<\/p>\n
US forces operating in the Strait of Hormuz, July 17, 2026. (credit: Screenshot\/X\/@PeteHegseth)<\/p>\n
The other options on the table, he said, were considerably more complex and dangerous. \u201cThe alternatives are an agreement or high-intensity war,\u201d the former senior official pointed out.<\/p>\n
Iranian concessions and the risks of renewed fighting<\/strong><\/p>\n At this stage, however, Vilan assessed that Iran was not prepared to pay the price required under an agreement.<\/p>\n \u201cIran does not want to reach an agreement. It is not prepared to relinquish what it achieved in Hormuz, and therefore it would prefer war to going backward,\u201d he said. \u201cOf course, it does not want to initiate a high-intensity war, and it would prefer to buy time until the midterm elections or until there is a new president in the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n The US administration\u2019s room to maneuver has also narrowed. Vilan argued that Washington had already gone a significant distance in its efforts to reach an understanding and now expected concessions from Tehran.<\/p>\n \u201cThe US is currently in a difficult position,\u201d Vilan said. \u201cThe US has reached the limit of the concessions it can make in an initial agreement. At this point, an agreement would have to include significant Iranian concessions, and that will not happen.\u201d<\/p>\n At the same time, he did not view renewed strikes<\/a> as a simple solution.<\/p>\n \u201cA return to fighting would send oil prices soaring, and there is a larger question here: What would they gain from fighting? Can they change the Iranian position?\u201d<\/p>\n