(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank\u2019s board room on Tuesday to deliberate on interest rates at a time of immense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic cross-currents.<\/p>\n
Most Read from Bloomberg<\/p>\n
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed\u2019s preferred price metrics. Fed officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday, and are widely expected to keep rates unchanged again.<\/p>\n
Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter, largely due to a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, while job growth moderated in July. The third marquee report may show underlying inflation picked up slightly in June from a month earlier.<\/p>\n
While the government\u2019s advance estimate of GDP for the quarter is projected to show an annualized 2.4% increase \u2014 after the economy shrank 0.5% in January-March \u2014 Wednesday\u2019s report will probably reveal only modest household demand and business investment.<\/p>\n
The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey calls for a 1.5% gain in consumer spending to mark the weakest back-to-back quarters since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. A shaky housing market also weighed on second-quarter activity.<\/p>\n
At the end of the week, the July jobs report is forecast to show companies are becoming more deliberate in their hiring. Employment likely moderated after a June increase that was boosted by a jump in education payrolls, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 4.2%.<\/p>\n
Private payrolls are projected to rise by 100,000 after the smallest advance in eight months. Through the first half of the year, the pace of hiring by companies has eased compared with the 2024 average. The breadth of job growth has been relatively narrow as well. Separate figures out Tuesday are forecast to show job openings declined in June.<\/p>\n
A few Fed officials have started to raise concerns about what they see as a fragile job market, including two who\u2019ve said they see merit in considering a rate cut now. Pressure is also mounting from outside the boardroom. President Donald Trump has been vocal about his desire to see Powell & Co. lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cWe think a consumer-led slowdown poses a risk to the outlook. While June retail sales beat expectations, that was likely a reflection of tariff-driven price increases in certain goods categories. Ultimately, the labor market \u2014 which we expect to continue weakening this year \u2014 will define the path of consumption.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou & Chris G. Collins, economists. For full analysis, click here<\/p>\n
The president has frequently chastised Powell for moving too slowly, while at the same time taking aim at his stewardship over construction cost overruns related to renovation of the Fed\u2019s Eccles Building headquarters in Washington.<\/p>\n
Powell and other central bankers have stressed the need for patience as the Trump administration\u2019s tariffs risk a re-acceleration of inflation. So far this year, since a variety of US duties on imports were imposed, price pressures have been modest.<\/p>\n
The government\u2019s personal income and spending report for June, due on Friday, is projected to show the Fed\u2019s preferred core inflation gauge accelerated slightly from a month earlier, indicating tariffs are only gradually being passed through to consumers.<\/p>\n
Further north, the Bank of Canada is also set to hold, keeping borrowing costs steady at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting amid trade uncertainty, sticky core inflation, and an economy that seems to be handling tariffs better than many economists expected. Officials will release a monetary policy report, but it\u2019s not yet known whether they\u2019ll return to point forecasts or release multiple scenarios, as they did in April amid volatile US trade policy.<\/p>\n
Industry-based GDP data for May and a flash estimate for June are expected to point to a contraction in the second quarter. Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing to get a trade deal done with Trump by Aug. 1, but he and the country\u2019s provincial leaders have downplayed expectations, saying they\u2019re focused above all on getting a good agreement.<\/p>\n
On a global level, Trump\u2019s Friday deadline also takes center stage, with several countries \u2014 including the European Union, South Korea and Switzerland \u2014 still hoping to clinch trade agreements.<\/p>\n
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen will meet the US president in Scotland on Sunday afternoon in an attempt to secure a pact. EU officials have repeatedly cautioned that a deal ultimately rests with Trump, making the final outcome difficult to predict.<\/p>\n
Elsewhere, central bankers in Japan and Brazil are also likely to keep rates unchanged, while cuts are anticipated in South Africa, Chile, Ghana, Pakistan and Colombia. Investors will also watch for new International Monetary Fund\u2019s forecasts, global purchasing manager index readings, and a barrage of GDP and inflation data in Europe.<\/p>\n
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what\u2019s coming up in the global economy.<\/p>\n
Asia<\/p>\n
Asia\u2019s central bank highlight comes Thursday, with the Bank of Japan expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 0.5%. Governor Kazuo Ueda\u2019s reaction to the US trade deal will be a focus after his deputy said the agreement boosted the likelihood of economic forecasts being met \u2014 a key condition for another rate hike.<\/p>\n
A slew of data will reflect the impact of Trump\u2019s tariff campaign. Trade figures are due from the Philippines, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia, while manufacturing PMI figures are due across the region.<\/p>\n
China gets two sets of July PMI data at the end of the week, with attention on whether the official gauge can edge higher for a third month and S&P Global\u2019s index can stay in the expansion zone. Industrial earnings \u2014 published Sunday \u2014 revealed a second straight month of declines, with authorities set to intensify their drive to rein in excessive competition that\u2019s dragging down prices and compounding the pain from US tariffs.<\/p>\n
Others releasing PMI statistics include Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam, all on Friday.<\/p>\n
Meantime, Australia gets second quarter data that\u2019s expected to show consumer inflation cooled a tad, which could give the Reserve Bank room to resume its rate cutting cycle when it next sets policy on Aug. 12.<\/p>\n
Pakistan\u2019s central bank may cut rates on Wednesday, two days before the country \u2014 and Indonesia \u2014 gets new inflation readings.<\/p>\n
Europe, Middle East, Africa<\/p>\n
Output and inflation data across Europe take center stage. Economists in a Bloomberg poll expect Wednesday\u2019s figures to show euro-area GDP remained flat in the three months through June, after a 0.6% expansion in the first quarter. That performance was lifted by a frontloading in trade before Trump\u2019s expected announcement of global import duties.<\/p>\n
Among the bloc\u2019s biggest economies, Germany is forecast to see the worst performance, with output slipping 0.1% from the previous quarter. Spain is expected to keep growing by 0.6%, with France and Italy expanding just slightly. Smaller economies publish their numbers throughout the week, with Ireland \u2014 so often a wild card for the bloc\u2019s economy \u2014 kicking things off on Monday.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, inflation data for the euro area on Friday are set to confirm the European Central Bank\u2019s confidence that it\u2019s been brought under control. Consumer prices are forecast to have risen 1.9% in July, less than the previous month\u2019s 2% and just below the central bank\u2019s goal. A measure of underlying inflation probably remained steady, at 2.3%.<\/p>\n
With most of Europe in vacation mode, only a single ECB speaker has a scheduled appearance \u2014 Spain\u2019s Jos\u00e9 Luis Escriv\u00e1, on Monday \u2014 while results from the central bank\u2019s monthly survey of consumers\u2019 inflation expectations are due a day later, and its wage tracker comes on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
The Bank of England goes into a quiet period ahead of its Aug. 7 rate decision, with economic releases on the UK agenda primarily linked to housing.<\/p>\n
Rate decisions are scheduled across Africa:<\/p>\n
A steep slowdown in inflation will likely see officials in Ghana lower borrowing costs by 250 basis points to 25.5% on Wednesday. Its real rate is the highest it\u2019s been since at least 2005, providing room for the central bank to deliver the biggest reduction in more than two decades.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
South Africa is set to extend its longest easing cycle since 2019 as inflation is anticipated to remain benign. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to cut on Thursday by 25 basis points, to 7%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
On the same day, Malawi\u2019s policymakers are poised to leave their key rate unchanged at 26% due to foreign-exchange constraints and persistent price pressures.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
A technical recession in Mozambique will probably convince policymakers to opt for further easing on Thursday to stimulate the economy. It has cut by 625 basis points since January 2024.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Eswatini, whose currency is pegged to the rand, will probably lower its benchmark by a quarter point on Friday, to 6.5%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Latin America<\/p>\n
Chile\u2019s central bank on Tuesday is likely to deliver its first rate cut of 2025, opting for a quarter-point reduction to 4.75%.<\/p>\n
Consumer prices last month cooled more than expected and inflation is once again slowing in line with central bank forecasts, which have the headline reading back to the 3% target in 2026.<\/p>\n
Mexico\u2019s flash second-quarter data posted on Wednesday should show Latin America\u2019s No. 2 economy posting slight quarterly and year-on-year expansions amid the drag from Trump\u2019s trade and tariff policies.<\/p>\n
Most analysts see the second half of the year posing a greater challenge.<\/p>\n
In the region\u2019s second central bank rate decision of the week, Banco Central do Brasil is widely expected to draw a line under a seven-meeting, 450 basis-point tightening campaign and keep the key Selic rate at 15%.<\/p>\n
Recent inflation prints and near-term expectations are beginning to come down, but policymakers last month signaled that borrowing costs will likely remain steady for a long period.<\/p>\n
In Colombia, headline inflation is running above the top of BanRep\u2019s tolerance range and core readings remain stubbornly elevated, but policymakers probably saw just enough cooling in June\u2019s consumer price data to justify a quarter-point cut, to 9%.<\/p>\n
Peru on Friday kicks off consumer price reports for the region\u2019s big inflation targeting economies. The early consensus among economists is that July\u2019s annual reading will come in near June\u2019s 1.69% print.<\/p>\n
–With assistance from Alexander Weber, Andrew Atkinson, Brian Fowler, Erik Hertzberg, Mark Evans, Monique Vanek, Piotr Skolimowski and Robert Jameson.<\/p>\n
(Updates with timing of US-EU trade talks in 15th paragraph)<\/p>\n
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\u00a92025 Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank\u2019s board room…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":97010,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[3638,64,22703,69,79,37511,142,4684,2179,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-97009","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-bloomberg","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-central-bank","11":"tag-donald-trump","12":"tag-economy","13":"tag-fed-officials","14":"tag-jerome-powell","15":"tag-trade-policy","16":"tag-unemployment-rate","17":"tag-united-states","18":"tag-unitedstates","19":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114925881575578690","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97009"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97009\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97010"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}