{"id":973072,"date":"2026-08-01T07:52:25","date_gmt":"2026-08-01T07:52:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/973072\/"},"modified":"2026-08-01T07:52:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-01T07:52:25","slug":"long-duration-m1-9-flare-produces-earth-directed-cme-g1-g2-geomagnetic-storm-conditions-forecast-for-august-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/973072\/","title":{"rendered":"Long-duration M1.9 flare produces Earth-directed CME, G1-G2 geomagnetic storm conditions forecast for August 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

Solar activity reached moderate levels on July 30 after Region 4492 (N15W82, Hax\/alpha) produced a long-duration M1.9\/Sf at 17L00 UTC. Coinciding with the flare was an approximately eight-degree-long filament eruption, centered near N20W67.<\/p>\n

Additionally, two Type II radio sweeps were observed \u2014 the first at 16:27 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 853 km\/s, and the second at 16:45 UTC, estimated velocity 1 681 km\/s. Other radio events included a Type IV sweep at 16:31 UTC, and a 17-minute-long Tenflare (190 sfu) that peaked at 16:43 UTC.<\/p>\n

The greater-than-10 MeV proton flux crossed the S1 \u2013 Minor solar radiation storm threshold at 18:45 UTC on July 30 and reached a peak of 18 pfu at 20:55 UTC. The flux fell below the S1 threshold by 00:30 UTC on July 31 and passed the threshold again at 13:27 UTC.<\/p>\n

SWPC said the proton enhancements were likely associated with the M1.9 flare from Region 4492. The agency retained a chance of renewed S1 conditions on July 31 and August 1, while the greater-than-2 MeV electron flux was expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through August 2.<\/p>\n

A partial-halo CME appeared in GOES CCOR2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 17:15 UTC, while STEREO COR2 imagery showed a full-halo signature beginning at 16:53 UTC. WSA-Enlil model runs placed a possible arrival at Earth early on August 2.<\/p>\n

\"goes-proton-flux-5-minutesImage credit: SWPC\"wsaImage credit: SWPC

Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today. Total magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT, solar wind speed was mainly between 300 and 330 km\/s, and the phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive solar sector.<\/p>\n

SWPC said a diminishing chance of disturbed solar wind conditions remained on July 31 as CMEs launched on July 26 and 27 could still graze Earth. Another disturbance is possible on August 1 from a CME that left the Sun late on July 27, combined with weak influence from a coronal hole high speed stream. A more pronounced enhancement in solar wind parameters is likely early on August 2 as the July 30 CME passes by Earth.<\/p>\n

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are forecast through August 1, with isolated active periods possible under the combined influence of a weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream and glancing or relatively weak effects from the July 26 and 27 CMEs.<\/p>\n

SWPC expects G1-G2 geomagnetic storm levels on August 2 due to the anticipated arrival of the July 30 CME. Under G2 geomagnetic storm conditions, high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, while prolonged storming can affect transformers.<\/p>\n

Spacecraft operators may need to make orientation corrections, and increased drag can affect satellites in low Earth orbit. High-frequency radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora may become visible as far south as New York and Idaho in the United States under favorable conditions.<\/p>\n

Solar activity is expected to remain low through August 2, with a chance of M-class flares and associated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.<\/p>\n

References:<\/p>\n

1 Forecast Discussion \u2013 NOAA\/SWPC<\/a> \u2013 Issued at 12:30 UTC on July 31, 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Solar activity reached moderate levels on July 30 after Region 4492 (N15W82, Hax\/alpha) produced a long-duration M1.9\/Sf at…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":973073,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[8],"tags":[390525,390526,390527,159,200013,27664,390528,797,67,132,68],"class_list":["post-973072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-science","tag-filament-eruption","tag-geomagnetic-storm-forecast","tag-m-class","tag-science","tag-solar-activity","tag-solar-flares","tag-solar-radiation-storm","tag-space-weather","tag-united-states","tag-unitedstates","tag-us"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/117019171020732336","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/973072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=973072"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/973072\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/973073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=973072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=973072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=973072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}