LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Bertha Wednesday, July 22, 2026.<\/p>\n (CIRA \/ FOX Weather)<\/strong><\/p>\n The agency expects 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, including 0 to 2 major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes. Those ranges include Tropical Storms Arthur<\/a> and Bertha<\/a>, which formed in the Gulf earlier this summer<\/a>.<\/p>\n This is a slight reduction from NOAA’s initial forecast that was issued in late May, which called for a below-average season with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes.<\/p>\n HOW ARE HURRICANES RATED?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n In comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.<\/p>\n NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast August Update<\/p>\n (FOX Weather)<\/strong><\/p>\n NOAA also raised the probability of a below-average season from 55% to 75%.<\/p>\n “If the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends up being below-normal, it would mark only the second season in the last decade without above-normal activity,” NOAA said.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o generally suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)<\/a>. It describes natural temperature<\/a> changes in the central Pacific Ocean<\/a> that alter atmospheric<\/a> circulation and can greatly influence global<\/a> weather.<\/p>\n This graphic shows the El Ni\u00f1o zone.<\/p>\n (FOX Weather)<\/strong><\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o describes warmer than average water across the equatorial Pacific, while La Ni\u00f1a<\/a> describes colder than average water conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures<\/a> are close to average.<\/p>\n WHAT IS THE JET STREAM?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n During El Ni\u00f1o, above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean alter the position and strength of the subtropical jet stream. It’s typically more robust and extends well into the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean. The jet stream is a belt of very fast winds<\/a> high in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o impact on hurricane season.<\/p>\n (FOX Weather \/ FOX Weather)<\/strong><\/p>\n It’s these strong winds that hinder tropical development in the Atlantic during an El Ni\u00f1o. Calm conditions are generally more conducive to hurricane formation.\u00a0<\/p>\n When water temperatures in the El Ni\u00f1o zone reach at least 2 degrees Celsius above average for at least three consecutive months, it is considered a Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>. These events are not as common as a typical El Ni\u00f1o and have a massive influence not only on the Atlantic hurricane season, but also other weather patterns around the globe.<\/p>\n WHAT IS A SUPER EL NINO?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Taken in a vacuum, the stronger the El Ni\u00f1o event, the more wind will be present to limit storm development in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n A strong El Ni\u00f1o has already taken hold, with water temperatures in the El Ni\u00f1o zone now 2.07 degrees above average, higher than the same point for other recent Super El Ni\u00f1o events of 2015, 1997, 1991, and 1982.<\/p>\n According to NOAA, some computer forecast models suggest this El Ni\u00f1o could be the strongest event since record keeping began in 1950. In its July update, NOAA said El Ni\u00f1o could reach historically strong conditions<\/a> between October and December, with a 97% chance of lasting through next spring<\/a>.<\/p>\n However, the agency cautioned that a record-breaking El Ni\u00f1o event could produce atmospheric impacts never before seen.<\/p>\n EL NI\u00d1O CONTINUES STRENGTHENING TOWARDS RECORD TERRITORY, LIKELY TO REACH ‘SUPER’ STATUS BY YEAR’S END<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n “A strong event could have different impacts than those traditionally observed as opposed to similar impacts with greater intensity,” NOAA said.<\/p>\n August Colorado State University Atlantic hurricane season forecast<\/p>\n (FOX Weather \/ FOX Weather)<\/strong><\/p>\n The development of El Ni\u00f1o this year was well forecast by NOAA and other agencies, with the main questions being how quickly it would strengthen and what intensity it would reach.<\/p>\n NOAA’s forecast parallels Colorado State University’s (CSU) August outlook, released Wednesday, which called for 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, including 1 major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this year. CSU pioneered early-year hurricane season forecasts beginning in 1984.<\/p>\n MAJOR ATLANTIC HURRICANE LANDFALL ODDS ‘WELL BELOW-AVERAGE’ THIS SEASON DUE TO IMPENDING SUPER EL NI\u00d1O<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n HURRICANE HQ \ud83c\udf00: FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross shares an update on the progress of hurricane season, as experts monitor a strengthening El Ni\u00f1o this week. There have been two named storms so far this season. #Hurricane #Severewx #FOXWeather<\/p>\n While such a strong El Ni\u00f1o is expected to virtually shut down hurricane formation in the open waters of the Atlantic, it would still allow for so-called “homegrown” tropical systems in the northern Gulf and along the Southeast<\/a> coast.<\/p>\n![\"Satellite](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/491b20d1-download-2.png\")
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<\/p>\nSuper El Ni\u00f1o comparison
(FOX Weather)<\/strong>
\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"August](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/download.png\")
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