{"id":990685,"date":"2026-08-09T08:27:34","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T08:27:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/990685\/"},"modified":"2026-08-09T08:27:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-09T08:27:34","slug":"talking-the-tropics-with-mike-last-day-of-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/990685\/","title":{"rendered":"Talking the Tropics With Mike: Last day of the Atlantic hurricane season!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jacksonville, Fl. \u2014 THE TROPICS:<\/b><\/p>\n

***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! ****<\/b><\/p>\n

Tropics threats\/impacts for Jacksonville\/NE Florida\/SE Georgia: <\/b> None.<\/p>\n

The Atlantic Basin Overview:<\/b><\/p>\n

The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th.<\/p>\n

The average date of the third named storm of the season is August 3rd.<\/p>\n

Next on the Atlantic list: Cristobal.<\/p>\n

There is an upper level low <\/b>moving west the next few days east & northeast of Florida while turning more northward with time just offshore of Florida & the Carolina\u2019s through the weekend. There has been quite a bit of disorganized t\u2019storm activity associated with this feature the last few days. But no significant tropical development is expected at the surface. Still… there will be some increased moisture & \u201cforcing\u201d for an uptick in showers & t\u2019storms from Florida to the Carolina\u2019s.<\/p>\n

The African wave train<\/b> is cycling up – to be expected as we head toward the peak of the hurricane season. Whether or not any of these waves can develop let alone make it very far west is another thing. Some long range models do indicate the potential for some tropical development over the Eastern &\/or Central Atlantic from the middle to end of next week. Conditions initially look pretty favorable but then may become increasingly hostile – strengthening shear – over\/near the West Atlantic. Exactly where any future tropical systems might go will be largely dictated by the strength & position of the Bermuda High which *appears right now* to be shifted somewhat east & north which might allow for recurvature over the West Atlantic. Plenty of time to watch & track.<\/p>\n

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\u2018Velocity potential anomalies<\/b>\u2019 below. \u201cRising\u201d air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).<\/p>\n

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The \u201cBuresh Bottom Line\u201d: <\/b>Always be prepared!<\/b><\/a>…..<\/b>First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide<\/b><\/a>… <\/b>City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide<\/b><\/a>… <\/b>Georgia Hurricane Guide<\/b><\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n

STAY INFORMED: <\/b>Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: <\/b>Action News Jax app for Apple<\/b><\/a> | <\/b>For Android<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

WATCH \u201c<\/b>Preparing for the Storm<\/b><\/a>\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center \u201c<\/b>Preparation Guide<\/b><\/a>\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

LISTEN \u201c<\/b>First Alert Weather: Preparing for the Storm<\/b><\/a>\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Federal Alliance for Safe Homes<\/b> (FLASH) * here<\/a> *.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.<\/b><\/p>\n

Realize the forecast cone (\u201dcone of uncertainty\u201d) is the average forecast error over a given time – out to 6 days – & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &\/or where damage might occur.<\/b><\/p>\n

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The map below shows the *average* time for a tropical wave coming off Africa to travel west & northwest. Only about 1 in 5 tropical waves – on average – become a tropical cyclone of some sort (depression\/storm\/hurricane):<\/p>\n

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Water vapor loop<\/b> (dark blue\/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):<\/p>\n

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August<\/b> Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:<\/p>\n

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Averages<\/b> below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:<\/p>\n

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Wind shear<\/b> (red – strong shear; green – low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:<\/p>\n

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Saharan dust<\/b> spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow\/orange\/red\/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes \u201cwanna\u2019 be\u201d waves will just wait until they get to the other side of – or away from – the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It\u2019s my personal opinion that there is way too much \u201choopla\u201d about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large \u201cblobs\u201d of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that\u2019s thinning with westward extent but enough of it to make for hazy skies across the Caribbean & – at times – across parts of Florida.<\/p>\n

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2026 names…..<\/b> \u201cCristobal\u201d is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization… repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in \u201918… Dorian in \u201919 (the last time this year\u2019s list was used) … Laura, Eta & Iota in \u201820 … Ida in \u201821 … Fiona & Ian in \u201822… no names were retired in \u201823 for the first time since 2014… Beryl, Helene & Milton in 2024 & Melissa in 2025). The WMO decided – beginning in 2021 – that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times – 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here<\/a> *.<\/p>\n

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Hurricane season climatology:<\/b><\/p>\n

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East Atlantic:<\/p>\n

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Mid & upper level wind shear<\/b> (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear – typically the \u201cenemy\u201d of tropical systems:<\/p>\n

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Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):<\/p>\n

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Deep oceanic heat content<\/b> over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. Brighter colors = warmer temps.:<\/p>\n

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Sea surface temps.:<\/p>\n

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Sea surface temp. anomalies:<\/p>\n

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SE U.S. surface map:<\/p>\n

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Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:<\/p>\n

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Surface analysis of the Gulf:<\/p>\n

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Caribbean:<\/p>\n

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Atlantic Basin wave period forecast <\/b>for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:<\/p>\n

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East & Central Pacific:<\/b><\/p>\n

This basin will most likely be the generally more active area in \u201826 due to the anticipated El Nino.<\/p>\n

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Central Pacific:<\/b><\/p>\n

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Hawaii satellite imagery:<\/p>\n

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Global tropical activity:<\/b><\/p>\n

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West Pacific:<\/b><\/p>\n

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\u201cDolphin\u201d will move ashore in China Sunday-Monday:<\/p>\n

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\u201cChan-hom\u201d will impact Japan next week as a tropical storm:<\/p>\n

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Cox Media Group<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Jacksonville, Fl. \u2014 THE TROPICS: ***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! **** Tropics threats\/impacts…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":38270,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5136],"tags":[5229,3188,723,2692,7310,67,586,132,5230,68,2969],"class_list":["post-990685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-jacksonville","tag-america","tag-fl","tag-florida","tag-hurricanes","tag-jacksonville","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/117064616383924928","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/990685","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=990685"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/990685\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=990685"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=990685"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=990685"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}