HomeUkraineThis is the nightmare stuff we are talking about, a defeated Ukraine and subsequent Baltic invasion scenario from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
This is the nightmare stuff we are talking about, a defeated Ukraine and subsequent Baltic invasion scenario from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
April 18, 2024
This is the nightmare stuff we are talking about, a defeated Ukraine and subsequent Baltic invasion scenario from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
by Ok-Technology-332
28 comments
It’s a fantasy.
We’d f**k them into next week.
If Russia invaded Ukraine, on the pretense of “protecting” Russians speakers, why not invade other countries that also have Russian speakers especially if they used to “belong” (think of every country occupied after WW2) to Russia.
Leaving aside Putin’s willingness to sacrifice 100,000s of actual Russian citizens for this fallacy, in his head this is what GREATNESS / LEGACY looks like.
We shouldn’t underestimate what he considers rational…. We need to listen to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland… We ignored their fears before, they lived under this madness.
Aren’t most of these units decimated with extreme losses of equipment and material?
Ahm… it’s year 3 of war and they took (checks notes) two very small towns that are essentially ruins. Both within a few miles of the frontline.
Tell me, how many kilometers ‘til the border with Romania, for example?
Exactly…
They could try for sure but at this point their armies would be completely eliminated within days by air forces alone
But you know that this whole “Baltics next target” is just political game ?
Baltics are in NATO, and the statements that all leaders repeat that Baltics are next, are only to motivate EU for stronger military support, if you do the math, attack on Baltics would be Art.5 and basically a fall of ruzzia.
In the most real scenario, muscovite would attack Georgia, Moldova and Kazakhstan next, eventually take over Belarus in the end.
They couldn’t even rush to Kiev…….the Russian military is not capable of successfully maintaining such a wide front. Especially against NATO forces.
What kind of fever dream are they having at isw i feel like their reports have become more deranged by the week
I don’t get why there is no projection on situation where Ukraine loses all territory and Hungary exits NATO and joins russia. That way russia would have land access to Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Austria that aren’t in NATO. Given russians tried coup in Montenegro, they might reach Adriatic sea.
Former US Army soldier now resident in Ireland. Looks like I need to up my PT just in case.
Russia can’t take on NATO and fight a massive insurgency in Ukraine at the same time so if Ukraine capitulates, by their calculus, Russia’s only option is to eradicate the Ukrainian identity via cultural genocide. Once that is complete, the Ukrainians will be press-ganged en masse into the Red Army.
Well where will the Russians get enough tanks and artillery though🤔
Poland, and the two new NATO members just across the sea might disagree with the plan.
While russia would lose, it would be a tragedy. The West cares about human lives, while russia doesn’t. So in a way russia ”wins” because they are trading expandables with non-expandables. Only way to prevent this is help Ukraine now.
article 5. western combined armies would fuck russias shit up In under 3 days. the west has full spectrum dominance, except nuclear. alone western air superiority would kill actions like these depcited in their infancy.
nah sorry. not realistic at all. only because putin miscalculated ukranian resistance , doesnt mean that he doesnt know full well that he has no chance invading a western country.
just give ukraine everything they need and be done with it.
It would be cruel irony that Ukraine won’t conscript their under-25’s to defend their country and a hypothetical victorious Russia goes on to conscript all Ukrainian 18+ males to attack Europe.
The nightmare is, that the Ukraine can collapse without a total military victory from Russia, when they look at their inventory and have nothing left to defend.
When it does so, Ukrainians will be used like Donbanbas people, as meat soldiers against their own.
The only way to prevent such a tragedy, is to take all of the Ukrainians as refugees into the EU (will never happen because no one wants to leave home). Russia has not enough people themselves to fill up so much land/infrastructure usw. and can’t generate any profit out of Ukraine.
In my eyes the only way we really can help Ukraine at the moment is when Russia takes one step too fast and involves European nations into a direct confrontation. This would probably be one of the rare victory situations for Ukraine.
Russia can sort out their manpower problem by forcing Ukranians to fight under their flag. That is what literally happened in WW2. They’re also going to use the captured Nato territories to force them to fight for Russia, whether they like it or not.
It’s good to be positive, but it’s really looking bleak ATM. Ukraine is struggling as their soldiers at the front are telling the world for a while now. Russia is in a full on war economy for a good period now, it’s ramping up support from it’s allies heavily. Putting away the ISW as deranged and underestimating the enemy is both silly and dangerous.
I don’t think there will be such a scenario, if Ukraine falls they will become cowards and will sign a peace deal to protect them from russia and I don’t think Russia will touch nato ,the USA has many installations in the Baltics, they fear instigating US more than any other countries,touching US installations, it’s not going to be a cake walk, so in this scenario they might warn the USA,if Trump is clever enough he might be thinking about pulling troops, like how he pulled troops from northern syria instead of standing with the syrian democractic forces leaving at the mercy of invading Turkish forces, anyway these are just scenarios, and other scenario will be trump threatening putin with repercussions, if he intends to march beyond Ukraine.
Wait! What about Finland? Surely the ruskies will come and defend the ruski mir of some random “tits up” blini restaurant with a kazakh chef? Draw a big effin arrow across Finland asap!
Lots of Russians in the USA, lots of supporters there think they are safe from Russian aggression. We in Europe remember 9/11 even if they forget in America.
Ukraine isn’t going to fall. Ukraines might split in two. But the whole country will not be lost.
Russia is preparing for hybrid warfare against the Baltics. Expect cyber attacks and subterfuge.
Here’s the thing. If russia tried that tomorrow there biggest issue would be nato airpower. Russia has no answer for that. If russias best air defense system can’t stop a storm shadow or attacms missile from hitting it directly then they will have massive problems defeating hundreds of f22s and f35s supported by over a thousand modern 4th generation aircraft. On the ground they would also be facing very elite units that would only need to hold them off for a few weeks. An invasion of the Baltics with nato the way it is currently and the current russian military just does not have a chance of success. A ton would have to change with nato and the russian military for this to be possible
I don’t believe Russia has the strength for another offensive war.
This is a right load of bollocks, they have been bogged down for 2 years in Ukraine, their military capability has been significantly reduced (manpower does not equal capability, ask the Iraqis), they will be out thought, out fought and out produced by European NATO and will be soundly beaten even without US involvement… unless that involvement is on the side of Russia…
28 comments
It’s a fantasy.
We’d f**k them into next week.
If Russia invaded Ukraine, on the pretense of “protecting” Russians speakers, why not invade other countries that also have Russian speakers especially if they used to “belong” (think of every country occupied after WW2) to Russia.
Leaving aside Putin’s willingness to sacrifice 100,000s of actual Russian citizens for this fallacy, in his head this is what GREATNESS / LEGACY looks like.
We shouldn’t underestimate what he considers rational…. We need to listen to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland… We ignored their fears before, they lived under this madness.
Aren’t most of these units decimated with extreme losses of equipment and material?
Ahm… it’s year 3 of war and they took (checks notes) two very small towns that are essentially ruins. Both within a few miles of the frontline.
Tell me, how many kilometers ‘til the border with Romania, for example?
Exactly…
They could try for sure but at this point their armies would be completely eliminated within days by air forces alone
But you know that this whole “Baltics next target” is just political game ?
Baltics are in NATO, and the statements that all leaders repeat that Baltics are next, are only to motivate EU for stronger military support, if you do the math, attack on Baltics would be Art.5 and basically a fall of ruzzia.
In the most real scenario, muscovite would attack Georgia, Moldova and Kazakhstan next, eventually take over Belarus in the end.
They couldn’t even rush to Kiev…….the Russian military is not capable of successfully maintaining such a wide front. Especially against NATO forces.
What kind of fever dream are they having at isw i feel like their reports have become more deranged by the week
I don’t get why there is no projection on situation where Ukraine loses all territory and Hungary exits NATO and joins russia. That way russia would have land access to Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Austria that aren’t in NATO. Given russians tried coup in Montenegro, they might reach Adriatic sea.
Former US Army soldier now resident in Ireland. Looks like I need to up my PT just in case.
Russia can’t take on NATO and fight a massive insurgency in Ukraine at the same time so if Ukraine capitulates, by their calculus, Russia’s only option is to eradicate the Ukrainian identity via cultural genocide. Once that is complete, the Ukrainians will be press-ganged en masse into the Red Army.
Well where will the Russians get enough tanks and artillery though🤔
Poland, and the two new NATO members just across the sea might disagree with the plan.
While russia would lose, it would be a tragedy. The West cares about human lives, while russia doesn’t. So in a way russia ”wins” because they are trading expandables with non-expandables. Only way to prevent this is help Ukraine now.
article 5. western combined armies would fuck russias shit up In under 3 days. the west has full spectrum dominance, except nuclear. alone western air superiority would kill actions like these depcited in their infancy.
nah sorry. not realistic at all. only because putin miscalculated ukranian resistance , doesnt mean that he doesnt know full well that he has no chance invading a western country.
just give ukraine everything they need and be done with it.
It would be cruel irony that Ukraine won’t conscript their under-25’s to defend their country and a hypothetical victorious Russia goes on to conscript all Ukrainian 18+ males to attack Europe.
The nightmare is, that the Ukraine can collapse without a total military victory from Russia, when they look at their inventory and have nothing left to defend.
When it does so, Ukrainians will be used like Donbanbas people, as meat soldiers against their own.
The only way to prevent such a tragedy, is to take all of the Ukrainians as refugees into the EU (will never happen because no one wants to leave home). Russia has not enough people themselves to fill up so much land/infrastructure usw. and can’t generate any profit out of Ukraine.
In my eyes the only way we really can help Ukraine at the moment is when Russia takes one step too fast and involves European nations into a direct confrontation. This would probably be one of the rare victory situations for Ukraine.
Russia can sort out their manpower problem by forcing Ukranians to fight under their flag. That is what literally happened in WW2. They’re also going to use the captured Nato territories to force them to fight for Russia, whether they like it or not.
It’s good to be positive, but it’s really looking bleak ATM. Ukraine is struggling as their soldiers at the front are telling the world for a while now. Russia is in a full on war economy for a good period now, it’s ramping up support from it’s allies heavily. Putting away the ISW as deranged and underestimating the enemy is both silly and dangerous.
I don’t think there will be such a scenario, if Ukraine falls they will become cowards and will sign a peace deal to protect them from russia and I don’t think Russia will touch nato ,the USA has many installations in the Baltics, they fear instigating US more than any other countries,touching US installations, it’s not going to be a cake walk, so in this scenario they might warn the USA,if Trump is clever enough he might be thinking about pulling troops, like how he pulled troops from northern syria instead of standing with the syrian democractic forces leaving at the mercy of invading Turkish forces, anyway these are just scenarios, and other scenario will be trump threatening putin with repercussions, if he intends to
march beyond Ukraine.
Wait! What about Finland? Surely the ruskies will come and defend the ruski mir of some random “tits up” blini restaurant with a kazakh chef? Draw a big effin arrow across Finland asap!
Lots of Russians in the USA, lots of supporters there think they are safe from Russian aggression. We in Europe remember 9/11 even if they forget in America.
Ukraine isn’t going to fall. Ukraines might split in two. But the whole country will not be lost.
Russia is preparing for hybrid warfare against the Baltics. Expect cyber attacks and subterfuge.
Here’s the thing. If russia tried that tomorrow there biggest issue would be nato airpower. Russia has no answer for that. If russias best air defense system can’t stop a storm shadow or attacms missile from hitting it directly then they will have massive problems defeating hundreds of f22s and f35s supported by over a thousand modern 4th generation aircraft. On the ground they would also be facing very elite units that would only need to hold them off for a few weeks. An invasion of the Baltics with nato the way it is currently and the current russian military just does not have a chance of success. A ton would have to change with nato and the russian military for this to be possible
I don’t believe Russia has the strength for another offensive war.
This is a right load of bollocks, they have been bogged down for 2 years in Ukraine, their military capability has been significantly reduced (manpower does not equal capability, ask the Iraqis), they will be out thought, out fought and out produced by European NATO and will be soundly beaten even without US involvement… unless that involvement is on the side of Russia…