House prices have dropped 6 percent so far this year based on PPR transaction data.

For context, the last time we saw a full-year decline was 2012, when prices fell 11%. Is this a market turn or just seasonality?

*Edit* Title should read property prices, not house prices. Figures are for all property sales.*

Graph source – Statire



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Overasking1

11 comments

  2. That domain name, I took way too long to realise it was not satire.ie

  3. Lot of apartments on the market now with the new rental legislation which is likely pulling the average price down.

    Think you’d need to be comparing apples to apples eg; 3 bed semi houses in a few different areas and then see are they are all up/down…I’d say they’re still up.

  7. How do they actually measure this?

    Clicking into the graph it seems to be something like “average price of all individual properties sold for the calendar month versus equivalent from 12 months prior”…

    But wondering how would this take into account the actual properties (type, size & location etc)?

    As in – if the sales in the first 4 months of this year are predominantly say either/some combination of smaller dwellings, rural, or in cheaper areas etc whereas the equivalents from last year were either larger dwellings, urban, or in more expensive areas etc…

    Otherwise given that we’re only 4 months into the year could it have noise in the data like say for example a house in Ballsbridge that sold for €2.5m plus last March going up against a 1 bed apartment sold somewhere else a few weeks ago for €150k – which makes the year on year look like a massive decrease?

    (Those types of things I assume would wash out a bit more over an entire year of data even if using a simple average like the above – but you would still really need consistent data matched by property types and locations to get a sensible reading)

    Or is it normalised somehow for property type, size & location etc?

    That being said – the new legislation does kind of sound like it should be causing a temporary increase in supply as private landlords sell up, and any increase in supply should generally have downward pressure on prices assuming all else constant

  8. No they haven’t. That’s the average price which depends on the mix of properties sold.

  9. Welcome but needs more analysis. Does this reflext new builds, or is it being weighted down by an abnormal influx of second hand, and if so what types and where are they coming from? Lots of theories in the comments which seem plausible

  11. Plummet! Plummet! Plummet!

    …. maybe I won’t have to retire into homelessness after all.

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